Sunday, November 20, 2011

Reading a NWS Forecast Discussion

It looks like there might be snow in the mountains this week! Great news for resorts that are open (Sunday River) or trying to get open ASAP (Sugarloaf). MaineSkiFamily is looking to take their initial ski run on Wednesday, and we might get some snow!

Back on my Weather on the Web post I mentioned some of the sites we used to watch the weather. One good one that I didn't list was the National Weather Service forecast discussion out of the Gray, Maine office. They give a summary of the reasoning behind the forecast without going into too much technical detail... The models they talk about are computer models they use to help forecast. Their job is to apply the human element of the forecast and the discussion gives detail on the reasoning behind. Therefore, you can get better hints on upcoming weather events.

There might be snow on our first ski day! Here is the Long Term part of the discussion with the interesting parts highlighted. THINK SNOW!



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AFTN AS A SFC LOW THAT WILL BE ORGANIZING IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL AGREE THAT
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE CMC MODEL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT KEEPS THE LOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND HENCE A BIT COLDER. HAVE USED THE ECMWF/GFS FOR
THIS FCST PKG. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY TO SEE
PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW OR A MIX BUT ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES IN
TO CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THE
MOUNTAINS THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATION AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS AS THERE COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS FINE WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND WARMING TEMPS.




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